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Barrick Mining Pops 136% in a Year: Should You Buy, Sell or Retain?
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Key Takeaways
Barrick Mining shares jumped 136% in a year, outperforming industry and S&P 500 gains.
Barrick benefits from favorable gold prices, robust cash flows and major projects boosting future output.
Higher production costs and a soft production outlook weigh on B's near-term performance.
Barrick Mining Corporation’s (B - Free Report) shares have shot up 136% in the past year, thanks to the rally in gold prices to historic highs amid geopolitical tensions, economic and tariff-related uncertainties, and its strong earnings performance riding on a surge in realized prices.
Barrick has outperformed the Zacks Mining – Gold industry’s 119.2% increase and the S&P 500’s growth of 33.9% in the past year. Among its gold mining peers, Newmont Corporation (NEM - Free Report) , Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC - Free Report) and Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM - Free Report) have rallied 154.2%, 163% and 109.3%, respectively, over the same period.
B’s One-year Price Performance
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
B stock slipped below its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) on March 3, 2026. It is currently trading above its 200-day SMA, suggesting a long-term uptrend. The 50-day SMA has been reading higher than the 200-day SMA since the golden crossover on April 9, 2025, indicating a bullish trend.
B Trades Below 50-Day SMA
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Let’s take a look at Barrick’s fundamentals to better analyze how to play the stock.
Growth Projects to Underpin Production Upside for Barrick
Barrick is well-positioned to capitalize on advancements across its key growth projects, which are expected to meaningfully boost production. Its major gold and copper initiatives, such as Goldrush, the Pueblo Viejo plant expansion and mine life extension, Fourmile, Lumwana Super Pit and Reko Diq, are progressing on schedule and within budget, setting the stage for the next wave of profitable output.
The Goldrush mine is ramping up to the targeted 400,000 ounces of production per annum by 2028. Bordering Goldrush is the 100% Barrick-owned Fourmile, which is yielding grades double those of Goldrush and is anticipated to become another Tier One mine. The project has progressed to a prefeasibility study on the back of a successful drilling program, which shows significant resource growth potential. The Reko Diq copper-gold project in Pakistan is designed to produce 460,000 tons of copper and 520,000 ounces of gold annually in its second development phase.
The $2-billion Super Pit Expansion Project at Barrick’s Lumwana mine is progressing steadily, accelerating its shift into a Tier One copper mine. Barrick stated that the Lumwana expansion is the result of a significant turnaround, transforming the mine from an underperforming asset into a vital part of both its global copper portfolio and Zambia’s long-term development strategy. The expansion is expected to produce 240,000 tons of copper annually.
Robust Liquidity & Cash Flows Back B’s Capital Allocation
Barrick maintains a strong liquidity position and robust cash flow generation, enabling it to capitalize on compelling development, exploration and acquisition opportunities, enhance shareholder value and lower debt. At the end of fourth-quarter 2025, Barrick’s cash and cash equivalents were around $6.7 billion. It generated strong operating cash flows of roughly $2.7 billion in the fourth quarter, up 13% year over year, while free cash flow rose 9% year over year to around $1.6 billion. For full-year 2025, operating cash flow surged 71% to around $7.7 billion, and free cash flow shot up 194% to $3.9 billion.
Barrick returned $2.4 billion to its shareholders in 2025 through dividends and repurchases. It repurchased shares worth $1.5 billion during 2025, including $500 million in the fourth quarter. The company increased its dividend to 42 cents per share for the fourth quarter of 2025, marking a 140% increase over the third quarter. It also announced a new dividend policy that targets a total payout of 50% of attributable free cash flow on an annualized basis.
Barrick offers a dividend yield of 4% at the current stock price. Its payout ratio is 29% (a ratio below 60% is a good indicator that the dividend will be sustainable), with a five-year annualized dividend growth rate of roughly 13.3%.
Elevated Gold Prices to Drive B’s Margins and Cash Flow
While gold prices have eased from the record highs logged earlier this year, they remain supportive. Favorable gold prices should translate into higher realized prices, leading to strong profit margins and free cash flow generation for Barrick.
After surging roughly 65% in 2025, gold entered 2026 with strong momentum. Heightened geopolitical strains, a weaker U.S. dollar and concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve pushed bullion to record highs, with prices climbing to nearly $5,600 per ounce in late January. The rally was followed by a brief pullback to below $4,900 per ounce due to aggressive profit-taking and a rebound in the U.S. dollar. However, bargain hunting after the sharp selloff lifted prices back above $5,000 per ounce.
Bullion strengthened in early March again, surging past $5,400 per ounce on March 2, as safe-haven demand spiked, following joint U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran. Gold prices have since retreated from those levels amid a stronger U.S. dollar and inflation fears tied to surging oil prices. The Federal Reserve also kept interest rates unchanged amid a sharp upswing in oil prices due to the ongoing war, and projected only one rate cut this year. The Fed’s hawkish tone further weighed on gold prices. These factors dragged bullion to below $4,500 per ounce in late March.
Gold prices are see-sawing between gains and losses lately on President Donald Trump’s shifting Iran war rhetoric. Gold clawed its way back last week, racking up gains for four straight days on hopes for a possible end to the Iran war. Prices surged to a two-week high near $4,800 per ounce last Thursday, only to pull back again toward $4,600 per ounce after Trump threatened more attacks on Iran.
Sustained central-bank purchases, safe-haven demand tied to prevailing geopolitical tensions due to the Middle East war and broader macroeconomic uncertainties are likely to support gold prices moving ahead.
Barrick Hamstrung by Higher Production Costs
Barrick is challenged by higher costs, which may weigh on its margins. Its total cash costs per ounce of gold and all-in-sustaining costs (AISC) — a critical cost metric for miners — increased around 15% and 9% year over year, respectively, in the fourth quarter, and rose from the previous quarter as well. AISC of $1,581 increased from the year-ago quarter due to higher total cash costs per ounce. AISC also rose 10% year over year to $1,637 in 2025. Lower year-over-year production, partly due to the suspension of operations at the Loulo-Gounkoto mine, contributed to the rise in its unit costs.
For 2026, Barrick projects AISC in the range of $1,760-$1,950 per ounce, indicating a significant year-over-year increase at the midpoint. Cash costs per ounce are forecast to be $1,330-$1,470, up from $1,199 in 2025. Lower grades mined, higher prices of key consumables and raised gold price assumptions are expected to contribute to increased costs in 2026. The increase also reflects a higher cost base at Loulo-Gounkoto as the company ramps up mining following the return of control in December 2025.
Tepid Production View Dampens B’s Prospects
Certain operational issues adversely impacted Barrick’s gold production for full-year 2025. The company’s attributable gold production fell around 17% year over year to roughly 3.26 million ounces in 2025.
The company provided a tepid forecast for 2026, with attributable gold production expected to be in the range of 2.9-3.25 million ounces. While Loulo-Gounkoto is poised to deliver additional production along with modestly higher output from Pueblo Viejo, production is expected to be lower across Veladero, North Mara and Carlin in 2026. Turquoise Ridge is also projected to see lower grades. Weak production is expected to weigh on the company’s performance in the near term. Despite gains in realized gold prices, production growth would be critical to sustain revenues and margins in the coming quarters.
What B’s Earnings Estimates Indicate
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for B for 2026 has been revised higher over the past 60 days. The consensus estimate for 2026 earnings implies a year-over-year rise of 50.8%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
A Look at Barrick Stock’s Valuation
B stock is currently trading at a forward price/earnings of 10.95X, a roughly 10% discount to the industry’s average of 12.17X. It is trading at a discount to Agnico Eagle, Newmont and Kinross Gold. Barrick, Newmont and Kinross Gold have a Value Score of B each, while Agnico Eagle has a Value Score of D.
B’s P/E F12M Vs. Industry, NEM, AEM & KGC
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Final Thoughts: Hold Onto B Shares
Barrick’s initiatives to boost production, its strong balance sheet, solid earnings prospects, attractive valuation and healthy dividend yield present a favorable setup. Elevated gold prices should further aid margins and cash flows. Higher production costs and a soft production outlook, however, call for caution. Therefore, retaining this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock will be prudent for investors who already own it.
View the Zacks #1 Rank List
Image: Bigstock
Barrick Mining Pops 136% in a Year: Should You Buy, Sell or Retain?
Key Takeaways
Barrick Mining Corporation’s (B - Free Report) shares have shot up 136% in the past year, thanks to the rally in gold prices to historic highs amid geopolitical tensions, economic and tariff-related uncertainties, and its strong earnings performance riding on a surge in realized prices.
Barrick has outperformed the Zacks Mining – Gold industry’s 119.2% increase and the S&P 500’s growth of 33.9% in the past year. Among its gold mining peers, Newmont Corporation (NEM - Free Report) , Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC - Free Report) and Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM - Free Report) have rallied 154.2%, 163% and 109.3%, respectively, over the same period.
B’s One-year Price Performance
B stock slipped below its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) on March 3, 2026. It is currently trading above its 200-day SMA, suggesting a long-term uptrend. The 50-day SMA has been reading higher than the 200-day SMA since the golden crossover on April 9, 2025, indicating a bullish trend.
B Trades Below 50-Day SMA
Let’s take a look at Barrick’s fundamentals to better analyze how to play the stock.
Growth Projects to Underpin Production Upside for Barrick
Barrick is well-positioned to capitalize on advancements across its key growth projects, which are expected to meaningfully boost production. Its major gold and copper initiatives, such as Goldrush, the Pueblo Viejo plant expansion and mine life extension, Fourmile, Lumwana Super Pit and Reko Diq, are progressing on schedule and within budget, setting the stage for the next wave of profitable output.
The Goldrush mine is ramping up to the targeted 400,000 ounces of production per annum by 2028. Bordering Goldrush is the 100% Barrick-owned Fourmile, which is yielding grades double those of Goldrush and is anticipated to become another Tier One mine. The project has progressed to a prefeasibility study on the back of a successful drilling program, which shows significant resource growth potential. The Reko Diq copper-gold project in Pakistan is designed to produce 460,000 tons of copper and 520,000 ounces of gold annually in its second development phase.
The $2-billion Super Pit Expansion Project at Barrick’s Lumwana mine is progressing steadily, accelerating its shift into a Tier One copper mine. Barrick stated that the Lumwana expansion is the result of a significant turnaround, transforming the mine from an underperforming asset into a vital part of both its global copper portfolio and Zambia’s long-term development strategy. The expansion is expected to produce 240,000 tons of copper annually.
Robust Liquidity & Cash Flows Back B’s Capital Allocation
Barrick maintains a strong liquidity position and robust cash flow generation, enabling it to capitalize on compelling development, exploration and acquisition opportunities, enhance shareholder value and lower debt. At the end of fourth-quarter 2025, Barrick’s cash and cash equivalents were around $6.7 billion. It generated strong operating cash flows of roughly $2.7 billion in the fourth quarter, up 13% year over year, while free cash flow rose 9% year over year to around $1.6 billion. For full-year 2025, operating cash flow surged 71% to around $7.7 billion, and free cash flow shot up 194% to $3.9 billion.
Barrick returned $2.4 billion to its shareholders in 2025 through dividends and repurchases. It repurchased shares worth $1.5 billion during 2025, including $500 million in the fourth quarter. The company increased its dividend to 42 cents per share for the fourth quarter of 2025, marking a 140% increase over the third quarter. It also announced a new dividend policy that targets a total payout of 50% of attributable free cash flow on an annualized basis.
Barrick offers a dividend yield of 4% at the current stock price. Its payout ratio is 29% (a ratio below 60% is a good indicator that the dividend will be sustainable), with a five-year annualized dividend growth rate of roughly 13.3%.
Elevated Gold Prices to Drive B’s Margins and Cash Flow
While gold prices have eased from the record highs logged earlier this year, they remain supportive. Favorable gold prices should translate into higher realized prices, leading to strong profit margins and free cash flow generation for Barrick.
After surging roughly 65% in 2025, gold entered 2026 with strong momentum. Heightened geopolitical strains, a weaker U.S. dollar and concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve pushed bullion to record highs, with prices climbing to nearly $5,600 per ounce in late January. The rally was followed by a brief pullback to below $4,900 per ounce due to aggressive profit-taking and a rebound in the U.S. dollar. However, bargain hunting after the sharp selloff lifted prices back above $5,000 per ounce.
Bullion strengthened in early March again, surging past $5,400 per ounce on March 2, as safe-haven demand spiked, following joint U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran. Gold prices have since retreated from those levels amid a stronger U.S. dollar and inflation fears tied to surging oil prices. The Federal Reserve also kept interest rates unchanged amid a sharp upswing in oil prices due to the ongoing war, and projected only one rate cut this year. The Fed’s hawkish tone further weighed on gold prices. These factors dragged bullion to below $4,500 per ounce in late March.
Gold prices are see-sawing between gains and losses lately on President Donald Trump’s shifting Iran war rhetoric. Gold clawed its way back last week, racking up gains for four straight days on hopes for a possible end to the Iran war. Prices surged to a two-week high near $4,800 per ounce last Thursday, only to pull back again toward $4,600 per ounce after Trump threatened more attacks on Iran.
Sustained central-bank purchases, safe-haven demand tied to prevailing geopolitical tensions due to the Middle East war and broader macroeconomic uncertainties are likely to support gold prices moving ahead.
Barrick Hamstrung by Higher Production Costs
Barrick is challenged by higher costs, which may weigh on its margins. Its total cash costs per ounce of gold and all-in-sustaining costs (AISC) — a critical cost metric for miners — increased around 15% and 9% year over year, respectively, in the fourth quarter, and rose from the previous quarter as well. AISC of $1,581 increased from the year-ago quarter due to higher total cash costs per ounce. AISC also rose 10% year over year to $1,637 in 2025. Lower year-over-year production, partly due to the suspension of operations at the Loulo-Gounkoto mine, contributed to the rise in its unit costs.
For 2026, Barrick projects AISC in the range of $1,760-$1,950 per ounce, indicating a significant year-over-year increase at the midpoint. Cash costs per ounce are forecast to be $1,330-$1,470, up from $1,199 in 2025. Lower grades mined, higher prices of key consumables and raised gold price assumptions are expected to contribute to increased costs in 2026. The increase also reflects a higher cost base at Loulo-Gounkoto as the company ramps up mining following the return of control in December 2025.
Tepid Production View Dampens B’s Prospects
Certain operational issues adversely impacted Barrick’s gold production for full-year 2025. The company’s attributable gold production fell around 17% year over year to roughly 3.26 million ounces in 2025.
The company provided a tepid forecast for 2026, with attributable gold production expected to be in the range of 2.9-3.25 million ounces. While Loulo-Gounkoto is poised to deliver additional production along with modestly higher output from Pueblo Viejo, production is expected to be lower across Veladero, North Mara and Carlin in 2026. Turquoise Ridge is also projected to see lower grades. Weak production is expected to weigh on the company’s performance in the near term. Despite gains in realized gold prices, production growth would be critical to sustain revenues and margins in the coming quarters.
What B’s Earnings Estimates Indicate
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for B for 2026 has been revised higher over the past 60 days. The consensus estimate for 2026 earnings implies a year-over-year rise of 50.8%.
A Look at Barrick Stock’s Valuation
B stock is currently trading at a forward price/earnings of 10.95X, a roughly 10% discount to the industry’s average of 12.17X. It is trading at a discount to Agnico Eagle, Newmont and Kinross Gold. Barrick, Newmont and Kinross Gold have a Value Score of B each, while Agnico Eagle has a Value Score of D.
B’s P/E F12M Vs. Industry, NEM, AEM & KGC
Final Thoughts: Hold Onto B Shares
Barrick’s initiatives to boost production, its strong balance sheet, solid earnings prospects, attractive valuation and healthy dividend yield present a favorable setup. Elevated gold prices should further aid margins and cash flows. Higher production costs and a soft production outlook, however, call for caution. Therefore, retaining this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock will be prudent for investors who already own it.
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.